大陆消费行业月报：5月消费主要支撑-假日经济及电商大促

Retail Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% compared to the previous month's 2.3%[4] - Retail sales of goods generated 3.5 trillion yuan, growing 3.6% year-on-year, while catering services increased by 5%[4] - Online retail sales amounted to 1.4 trillion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, accounting for 34.6% of total retail sales, a 3.7 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Consumer Trends - The holiday economy and e-commerce promotions significantly supported retail growth, with cosmetics and textile clothing retail sales increasing by 19% and 4% year-on-year, respectively[40] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances and furniture, showed improvement due to the "old-for-new" policy, although automotive retail sales remained negative due to price wars[40] - The average ticket price for movies slightly decreased from 40.4 yuan to 39.8 yuan, with total box office revenue in May at 2.95 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year decline[10][76] Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in May, with core CPI increasing by 0.6%[79] - Pork prices were the main support for CPI, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while fuel prices saw a decrease, leading to a 6.3% increase in fuel CPI[65][66] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month[79] Market Outlook - Despite the support from holiday promotions and e-commerce events, May's retail data fell short of expectations, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer demand[87] - The performance of the consumer sector has been lackluster, with significant declines in key segments like the liquor market, particularly affecting stocks like Moutai[100][102]