宏观视野：2024年中前瞻–经济企稳可期，关注改革进程

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a recovery momentum with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% for 2024[18] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to drive mid-term growth, supported by government policies and global trade recovery[18] - Employment growth is expected to continue, although it remains below pre-pandemic levels[24] Policy and Reform Focus - The upcoming Third Plenary Session is expected to emphasize high-quality growth, innovation, and risk prevention[2] - Key areas of focus include fiscal reform, employment support, and energy transition policies[2] - The government plans to maintain a supportive fiscal stance, with an increase in budget deficits to stimulate growth[67] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales are projected to stabilize at 800-900 million square meters annually over the next 1-2 years, with a gradual recovery expected by 2026[15] - The impact of the real estate sector on economic growth is expected to diminish as supportive policies take effect[23] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions remain significant risks, with a potential restructuring of regional supply chains[3] - Asia's share in global supply chains has increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[30] - The extreme scenario of "Trump tariffs 2.0" could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1% and Chinese growth by 0.7% over several years[31] Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate slightly to 7.0 against the USD by year-end, influenced by U.S. monetary policy shifts[19] - Core inflation is projected to rise gradually, with CPI expected to reach 2.5% by 2025[50]