2024年下半年全球策略展望：一步之遥

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic landscape in 2024 resembles that of 2023, with unresolved issues persisting [18] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of resilience, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of 2024 [12][20] - The housing market remains a significant factor in inflation, with rental prices contributing to persistent inflationary pressures [32] Group 2 - The report highlights that excess savings in the U.S. are nearly depleted, which may negatively impact future consumer spending [36][43] - Consumer confidence indices are diverging, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending, particularly in non-essential areas [29][49] - The healthcare sector is noted for its strong job creation, offsetting weaknesses in other sectors, driven by structural changes post-pandemic [62] Group 3 - The report anticipates that major developed economies, particularly in Europe, may initiate interest rate cuts earlier than the U.S., with potential support for stock markets [20][23] - The performance of the U.S. stock market has exceeded many analysts' expectations, with the S&P 500 projected to reach a high of 5500 within the year [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on equity markets, particularly in developed countries, while suggesting opportunities in high-rated bonds as interest rates are expected to decline [23]