全球直线导轨行业龙头，有望充分受益于制造业周期向上

Group 1 - The report highlights that THK is a global leader in linear guideways, with a market share exceeding 50% and approximately 70% in the Japanese market, driven by strong demand from major clients such as Fanuc and Mitsubishi Electric [36][62][31] - The company has seen a shift in growth engines from Japan to overseas markets, with revenue contributions from the Americas, Europe, and China increasing from 11%, 8%, and 7% in 2011 to 25%, 20%, and 17% respectively by 2023 [62][39] - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue for 2024, as orders have begun to rise following a low point in Q2 2023, particularly in the electronics sector driven by AI demand [66][18][31] Group 2 - The manufacturing cycle is on an upward trend, which is expected to benefit rolling functional component manufacturers, as demand for linear guideways and ball screws is closely tied to manufacturing investment [7][75] - The global market for linear guideways is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 5.6% from 2022 to 2027, while the ball screw market is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 6.0% from 2022 to 2029 [16][52] - The competitive landscape remains stable, with foreign manufacturers maintaining a dominant position, as the top ten companies in the linear guideway and ball screw markets hold approximately 90% and 67% of the market share, respectively [55][56] Group 3 - THK has established significant technological barriers, including mature raw material formulations and heat treatment processes, which enhance its competitive edge in high-precision applications [19][92] - The company has developed a digital transformation strategy that improves service quality and strengthens customer loyalty, further solidifying its market position [19][92] - The report projects net profits for THK to be 197 billion yen, 235 billion yen, and 268 billion yen for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at 3,700 yen [19][31][18]