房地产行业专题研究：5月销售边际改善，开工竣工有望企稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with policy support expected to stabilize the market. The demand side shows signs of recovery in core cities, although it may take time to reflect in the fundamentals. New home and second-hand home transaction volumes are expected to rise steadily in June, although year-on-year declines may continue due to high base effects from the first half of 2023. The supply side is influenced by "de-inventory" policies, leading to a contraction in land supply and continued bottoming of real estate development investment. The central bank's policies for affordable housing and financing coordination mechanisms are expected to improve the financial situation of real estate companies [5][39]. Summary by Sections Investment Side: Development Investment Continues to Bottom, New Construction Area Decline Narrows - From January to May 2024, the cumulative national real estate development investment was 40,632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points. In May alone, the investment was 9,704 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points. The decline in development investment has been influenced by a cooling land market and a decrease in new construction area [13][14]. - The cumulative new construction area from January to May 2024 was 30,090 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the new construction area was 6,580 million square meters, down 22.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.6 percentage points [15]. - The cumulative completion area from January to May 2024 was 22,245 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the completion area was 3,384.7 million square meters, down 18.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [18]. Sales Side: Policy Support Boosts Market Confidence, Sales Marginally Improve - From January to May 2024, the cumulative national commodity housing sales area was 36,642 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative sales amount was 35,665 billion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the sales area was 7,390 million square meters, down 20.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points. The sales amount in May was 7,598 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points [20][22]. - The cumulative average sales price of commodity housing from January to May 2024 was 9,733 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4%. In May, the average sales price was 10,282 yuan per square meter, down 7.2% year-on-year, but up 0.9% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in market activity [26]. Financial Side: Sales Receipts Under Pressure, Domestic Funds Show Recovery - From January to May 2024, the cumulative funding for real estate development companies was 42,571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous months. In May, the funding was 8,535 billion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year, but showing a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [30]. - The cumulative funding sources included deposits and advance payments, personal mortgage loans, domestic loans, and self-raised funds, which were 12,584 billion, 6,191 billion, 6,810 billion, and 14,816 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -36.7%, -40.2%, -6.2%, and -9.8%. In May, the funding sources showed a slight increase in domestic loans, indicating a potential recovery in financing for real estate companies [32].