高盛：宏观研究热点P 500预测上调,储和英格兰银行将降息,法国和英国选举的影响

Investment Rating - The report raises the S&P 500 year-end target to 5600 from 5200, indicating a positive investment outlook for US equities [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that stellar earnings growth from five mega-cap tech stocks has mitigated typical negative revisions to consensus EPS estimates, supporting a higher fair-value P/E multiple of 20.4x for the S&P 500 [4]. - It discusses potential scenarios for the S&P 500, including a "catch up" scenario that could lift the index to 5900 (+8%) and a more optimistic scenario that could see it reach 6300 (+15%) [4]. - Conversely, it notes that concerns about the US economic outlook could lead to a decline in the index to as low as 4800 (-13%) [4]. Summary by Sections US Equities - The report anticipates continued upside for US equities, driven by strong earnings growth and a stable economic environment [4]. - It emphasizes the role of mega-cap tech stocks in offsetting negative EPS revisions, projecting a P/E multiple increase [4]. Central Banks - The report expects two rate cuts from the Fed in September and December, driven by a rebalanced labor market and softening economic activity [5][7]. - It also predicts that the Bank of England will begin cutting rates in August, reflecting progress in UK disinflation [8]. Global Economic Outlook - The report discusses the implications of upcoming elections in France and the UK, suggesting limited market impact regardless of the election outcomes [10]. - It notes ongoing policy easing in China, with expectations for fiscal and monetary measures to support economic activity [11]. Oil Production - The report estimates that crude production growth in the Permian Basin will decline from strong 2023 levels due to geological constraints, but robust growth is expected to continue through 2026 [12]. - It forecasts Brent prices to remain between $75-90 per barrel in the short run, supported by high OPEC spare capacity [12].