高盛：科技：智能手机总市场更新——苹果和人工智能手机预测分别上调1%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the global smartphone market, particularly for Apple, with an increase in shipment estimates for iPhones and a slight increase in the overall smartphone Total Addressable Market (TAM) [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The global smartphone TAM has been raised by 1% for 2024 and 2025, with expected shipments of 1.20 billion and 1.25 billion units respectively, reflecting a single-digit growth of 3% and 4% [2][5]. - The report highlights a more favorable iPhone replacement cycle driven by AI features, with expectations for innovative AI applications to stimulate demand [3][6]. - Despite a mild recovery in demand, the smartphone market remains saturated, and a quick turnaround is not anticipated until the next product cycle (6G) [2][3]. Summary by Sections Global Smartphone Market Updates - The report updates the global smartphone shipment estimates, raising Apple's shipments to 222.6 million units in FY24, with projections of 240.5 million, 248.5 million, and 253.6 million units in FY25 to FY27 [5][11]. - AI smartphones are expected to drive the replacement cycle, with mid-low end models priced around USD 250 featuring advanced AI capabilities [6][10]. Apple Supply Chain Benefits - Key suppliers benefiting from the positive outlook on iPhones include Largan, Sunny Optical, Win Semi, TSMC, and Luxshare, among others [6][7]. - The report identifies specific revenue exposures for these suppliers, indicating significant reliance on Apple products [7]. AI Smartphone Roadmap - Major smartphone brands have launched AI models since the second half of 2023, with features rapidly penetrating the market [9][10]. - The report notes that while current AI capabilities are standalone, there is a market expectation for better integration with operating systems in future models [6][10].