宏观和大类资产配置周报：外需不确定性加大，内需是稳增长重点

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - External demand uncertainty is increasing, with domestic demand being the key focus for stable growth[1] - May industrial added value grew by 5.6% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment growth was 4.0%[9] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[9] Group 2: Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.3%, while the ten-year government bond yield rose to 2.26%[21] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures down 4.07% and iron ore down 0.67%[21] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 1 basis point to 1.53%[21] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] - Short-term export benefits may continue, but medium-term risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions could negatively impact external demand[1] - Policies should focus on stimulating domestic demand, including easing restrictions on real estate sales and promoting consumption upgrades[1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Global inflation may decline slowly, and the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S. could be faster than expected[1] - The complexity of international situations poses additional risks to economic stability[1]