高盛： 2024年选举结果和关税前景可能会对有销售的股票构成不利影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or sectors analyzed Core Insights - The upcoming 2024 presidential election and potential tariff policies could negatively impact stocks with significant international sales exposure, as evidenced by historical performance trends following previous elections and trade wars [1][6] - The S&P 500 is projected to end 2024 at 5600, reflecting a 2.3% increase, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates of $241 for 2024 and $256 for 2025 [2] - The report highlights a significant geographical sales exposure for S&P 500 companies, with 28% of revenues coming from non-US sales, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions on these revenues [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.8% in the past week, with Financials being the best-performing sector (+1.7%) and Utilities the worst (-0.4%) [2] - Year-to-date, the Domestic Sales basket (GSTHAINT) has underperformed the International Sales basket (GSTHINTL) by 5 percentage points (5% vs. 11%) [6] Sector Performance - The Information Technology sector has the highest international sales exposure at 59%, with Semiconductors being the most exposed industry group at 73% [6][7] - Other sectors with significant international sales include Materials, Energy, and Industrials, each deriving over 30% of their sales from abroad [6] Earnings, Sales, and Revisions - The report provides EPS growth estimates of 8% for 2024 and 6% for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.1x for 2024 [2] - The median S&P 500 company derives 28% of its revenues from international sales, with the median stock in the Domestic Sales basket deriving 0% from abroad [6] Valuation - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 22.1x for the next twelve months (NTM) and 21.4x for 2025, suggesting a slight increase in valuation expectations [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts a deceleration in US economic growth to 2.2% year/year in 2025, while non-US growth is expected to accelerate [6] - The report anticipates that a Republican victory in the upcoming election could strengthen the US dollar, impacting the performance of domestic versus international sales stocks [6][7]