高盛：欧洲消费品奢侈品宏观追踪率下调至+5%,乏力,日本未得到重视

Investment Rating - The report has lowered the industry growth forecast to +5% for CY24, reflecting a decrease of 100 basis points due to softness in Greater China, partially offset by stronger tourism sales in Japan [4][11]. Core Insights - The luxury goods sector has experienced a de-rating recently, with a 10% decline over the past three months compared to a 3% increase in MSCI Europe, primarily due to disappointing trends in Mainland China [2][15]. - Despite the challenges in China, the report remains optimistic about the sector's ability to sustain growth, particularly highlighting the robust performance of the Japanese luxury market [2][4]. - The forecast for the Chinese cluster growth in 2024 has been adjusted to +10%, down from +13%, but still aligns with historical GDP growth trends [4][11]. Summary by Sections Macro Trends - The report indicates a steady growth outlook for 2Q24, driven by positive trends in Japan and continued momentum in the US and Rest of the World (ROW) [3][4]. - Domestic trends in China have softened, with retail sales decelerating post-Lunar New Year and negative export/import data [3][4]. Regional Insights - Japan's luxury market is highlighted as a key area of strength, with tourism spending significantly increasing, reaching over 300% of 2019 levels in May [25][15]. - The report notes that while Greater China faces challenges, outbound tourism from China is improving, benefiting regions like Japan [25][15]. Growth Drivers - The analysis suggests that the second half of 2024 may see a meaningful uptick in growth, supported by easier comparisons in 4Q and positive wealth effects in the US [4][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Japan's momentum as a counterbalance to the domestic challenges faced in China, maintaining a resilient top-line setup for the sector [4][11].