美联储议息会议点评（2024年6月）：利率指引上修

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecasts, with the 2024 year-end PCE inflation prediction increased from 2.4% to 2.6% and core PCE inflation from 2.6% to 2.8%[5] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted upward from 4.1% to 4.2% due to unexpected labor supply expansion[23] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace at $60 billion per month starting June[3] - The dot plot indicated a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from 3 times (75 basis points) to 1 time (25 basis points) and raised the long-term rate forecast from 2.6% to 2.8%[16] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.2 basis points to 4.75%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 8.8 basis points to 4.32%[7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85% and the Nasdaq increased by 1.53%, indicating mixed performance in the stock market[7] Forward Guidance - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution and indicated that interest rate decisions will depend on forthcoming data, suggesting a divided market outlook on rate cuts[8] - The overall financial conditions remain loose, with no immediate basis for further rate cuts anticipated within the year[8]