医药行业2024年度中期投资策略：关注创新、出海与银发经济

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, international expansion, and the aging economy in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors [5]. Medical Devices - The global medical device market was valued at $684.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $766.7 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [1][12]. - The proportion of Chinese medical device companies in the global revenue TOP100 increased from 14% in 2010 to 18% in 2023, indicating a growing presence in the global market [21] [20]. - The export of medical devices is transitioning from low-value consumables to mid-to-high-end devices such as CT, MRI, ultrasound, and in vitro diagnostics [1][28]. Pharmaceuticals - High-quality innovation is becoming the main theme in the development of domestic pharmaceuticals, with 40 innovative drug licensing deals in 2023-2024, seven of which received over $150 million in upfront payments [2]. - The introduction of supportive policies for innovative drug development reflects the government's encouragement for high-quality innovation [2]. - The surplus in medical insurance funds provides a guarantee for increasing the proportion of innovative drug reimbursements [2]. Retail Pharmacies - The retail pharmacy sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing prescription outflow, with sales increasing from 337.5 billion yuan in 2016 to 553.3 billion yuan in 2023, and the terminal market share rising from 22.5% to 29.3% [3]. - The concentration of the retail pharmacy industry is anticipated to increase as leading pharmacies expand through self-built stores, acquisitions, and franchises [3]. Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The aging population, which accounted for 15.4% of the population in 2023, is expected to drive demand for health management, benefiting TCM [4]. - The price of Chinese medicinal materials increased by 17.4% year-on-year by the end of 2023, with an 8.51% increase from early 2024 to May, suggesting potential for price increases in TCM OTC products [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the medical device sector, the report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sub-sectors, such as Mindray Medical, Yuyue Medical, and Huaitai Medical [5]. - In the pharmaceutical sector, it suggests looking at high-quality innovative drugs with "First-in-Class" (FIC) or "Best-in-Class" (BIC) potential, recommending companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Kangfang Biotech, and Innovent Biologics [5]. - For TCM, it highlights leading OTC brands that benefit from the aging trend, recommending China Resources Sanjiu and Dong-E E-Jiao [5]. - In the retail pharmacy sector, it advises focusing on compliant and large-scale leading enterprises, particularly Yifeng Pharmacy, while also suggesting attention to other players like Lao Baixing, Dazhonglin, Yixin Tang, and Jianzhijia [5].