农林牧渔行业专题研究：如何看待5月能繁母猪存栏变动情况？

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the pig farming sector is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming market is currently in an upward cycle, with a potential price increase due to supply shortages and a reduction in breeding sow inventory [24][25]. - The breeding sow inventory as of May 2024 is reported at 39.96 million heads, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, which is expected to lead to a reduction in pig output in the second half of the year [10][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market for signs of recovery and the potential for price increases, with expectations that pig prices may exceed 20 yuan/kg in the near future [25][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory - As of May 2024, the breeding sow inventory has shown a month-on-month increase for the first time, with a total of 39.96 million heads, although this is still a decrease from the previous year [10][12]. - Various consulting firms report a narrowing increase in breeding sow inventory, with Mysteel indicating a 0.43% increase in May compared to previous months [3][13]. - The northern regions show a larger increase in breeding sow inventory compared to the southern regions, primarily driven by smallholder farms [12][13]. 2. Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - In June, pig prices initially surged to 19 yuan/kg but subsequently fell due to decreased demand after the holiday [18][20]. - The average weight of pigs being sold has slightly increased, with a notable rise in the proportion of lighter pigs being sold [20][24]. - The report suggests that pig prices are expected to gradually rise, supported by a tightening supply situation and increasing consumer demand in the latter half of the year [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the pig farming sector's right-side investment opportunities, highlighting companies with strong performance and low valuations [5][28]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, along with suggestions for related sectors such as animal health and feed [5][28].