行内偕作·宏观点评：美国CPI数据点评（2024年5月）-“抗通胀”仍未胜利

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The US CPI year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3.3% in May, below the market expectation of 3.4%[4] - Month-on-month CPI remained flat, while core CPI year-on-year growth also decreased to 3.4%, against an expected 3.5%[4] - Non-housing service inflation softened due to three factors: the lagging impact of April's economic downturn, stabilization in vehicle insurance prices, and a decline in service consumption post-pandemic[4] Group 2: Energy and Food Prices - Food prices increased by 0.1% in May, while energy prices fell by 2.0% due to declining gasoline prices[5] - Gasoline wholesale prices are expected to continue to drive down energy prices, with food inflation likely to fluctuate around 2%[5] Group 3: Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation saw a slight decline of 0.04% in May, influenced by a stabilization in used car prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month[6] - Core service inflation weakened significantly, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, the lowest since September 2021, while year-on-year growth remained at 5.3%[7] Group 4: Market Reactions - The weaker-than-expected inflation data led to a "dovish" market sentiment, with the OIS curve indicating a potential 40 basis points rate cut by the Fed this year[8] - US Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield dropping to 4.75% and the 10-year yield to 4.32%[8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The weakening inflation data is largely attributed to the lagging effects of April's economic conditions, but a rebound in economic activity in May and June could lead to a resurgence in inflation momentum[9] - Despite the recent softening, the underlying consumer demand driven by high wage growth and a strong housing market is expected to support inflation persistence[11]