分析师行业路演：OTA的下一个增长点是什么

OTA Industry Overview - Domestic tourism revenue in 1Q24 exceeded expectations, with a 14% increase compared to 1Q19, reaching 1.52 trillion RMB [4][39][82] - Domestic tourism trips in 1Q24 recovered to 80% of 1Q19 levels, totaling 1.42 billion trips [5][82] - Online penetration is identified as the next growth driver for OTAs, with new players like Douyin and Kuaishou entering the market [2][49] - The 2024 domestic tourism revenue is projected to reach 6 trillion RMB, a 5% increase from 2019 levels [4] Holiday Tourism Performance - The May Day holiday saw a 28% increase in domestic tourism trips and a 13% increase in revenue compared to 2019, making it the strongest holiday performance so far in 2024 [41][92] - The Dragon Boat Festival showed weaker performance, aligning with the overall decline in hotel and airfare prices during non-holiday periods [41] - During the Spring Festival and Qingming Festival, per capita spending fully recovered to 2019 levels, but it remained below 2019 levels during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, reflecting a trend of cost-conscious travel [6] OTA Stock Performance - Ctrip Group-S and Tongcheng Travel have outperformed the broader market year-to-date, with Ctrip up 39% and Tongcheng up 7%, compared to a 6% rise in the Hang Seng Index and a 2% decline in the Hang Seng Tech Index [3][91] - Among overseas OTAs, Booking saw a 12% increase in stock price, while Expedia declined by 16% and Airbnb rose by 10% [11][37] Ctrip Group Analysis - Ctrip's 1Q24 adjusted net profit reached 4.1 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 45%, with a profit margin of 34% [43] - International OTA platform Trip.com contributed approximately 10% of total revenue, with an 80% year-over-year increase in revenue [44] - Ctrip's domestic and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings increased by over 20% and 100% year-over-year, respectively [17] - The company's 2Q24 revenue is expected to grow by 15%, with full-year 2024 revenue projected to increase by 18% to 52.7 billion RMB [33] Tongcheng Travel Analysis - Tongcheng Travel's core OTA business revenue grew by 24% year-over-year in 1Q24, with a 6.6 billion RMB contribution from its vacation business [20] - The company's core OTA operating profit was 720 million RMB, with an operating profit margin of 22.6%, down 3.7 percentage points year-over-year [20] - Tongcheng's vacation business is expected to achieve mid-to-low single-digit operating profit margins in the medium to long term [34] Outbound Tourism Recovery - Outbound tourism during the May Day holiday saw a 35% year-over-year increase in trips, recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [23] - International air passenger traffic from January to May 2024 recovered to 72%-85% of 2019 levels, with May reaching 85% [27][86] - Japan, Thailand, and South Korea lead in planned summer flights, recovering to 82%, 80%, and 88% of 2019 levels, respectively [58][68] Online Travel Market Projections - The online travel market size in 2024 is projected to exceed 2.8 trillion RMB, a 15% increase from the initial forecast, driven by growth in online user penetration [53][96] - By 2026, online travel user penetration is expected to reach 48%, with average trips per user increasing to 5.4 times and average spending growing at a 2% CAGR [31] User Demographics and Trends - Post-00s and university students are driving high-speed growth in travel bookings, with a 90% year-over-year increase in travel bookings for high school and university graduates in June 2024 [25] - Post-00s accounted for 35% of domestic long-distance travel bookings and saw a 153% year-over-year increase in outbound travel orders [51]