安信国际烟草行业的投资机会

Investment Rating - The report rates the tobacco industry positively, highlighting significant investment opportunities in companies like China Tobacco Hong Kong and Smoore Technology [3][54]. Core Insights - The tobacco sector has outperformed the market, with a 45% increase since 2024, compared to a 9.2% rise in the Hang Seng Index [3]. - China Tobacco Hong Kong has shown robust growth, achieving record revenues and profits in 2023, driven by the import of tobacco leaves and the recovery of cigarette exports [7][54]. - Smoore Technology is positioned to recover from domestic market contractions, with overseas business growth expected to offset declines in the domestic market [56][71]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The tobacco sector has seen a substantial increase, with notable performances from China Tobacco Hong Kong and Smoore Technology, which have risen by 75% and 57% respectively since the beginning of 2024 [3][5]. China Tobacco Hong Kong - The company reported a record revenue of 11.8 billion HKD in 2023, a 42% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 690 million HKD, up 49% [7]. - The tobacco leaf import business is the primary revenue driver, contributing 68.26% of total income, while cigarette exports are recovering post-pandemic [12][54]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.1 billion HKD in 2024, with net profits projected at 904 million HKD [54]. Smoore Technology - Smoore's revenue for 2023 was 11.17 billion HKD, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.65 billion HKD, down 34.5% [56]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, particularly in Europe and APV products, which have shown growth despite domestic market challenges [60][71]. - Future revenue projections for Smoore are 12.4 billion HKD in 2024, with net profits expected to reach 1.69 billion HKD [71]. Tobacco Leaf Trade - Global tobacco production is declining, with 2022 figures at 5.78 million tons, while China remains the largest producer and consumer [24][30]. - The demand for high-quality tobacco leaves in China is increasing, with a 6% annual growth rate in imports [30]. - Tobacco prices are currently in an upward cycle, providing a favorable environment for tobacco companies [32]. New Tobacco Products - The heated not burned (HNB) market is expanding, with a market size of 34.1 billion USD in 2023, growing at 11.6% [49]. - Smoore's APV products have shown significant growth, with revenues of 1.85 billion HKD in 2023, up 26% [60]. M&A Opportunities - The report suggests that mergers and acquisitions could be a key strategy for growth in the tobacco sector, referencing the historical success of major tobacco companies [52][54].