中美消费板块回顾及港股投资策略

Group 1: Overview of Consumption Trends - Both China and the US are experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with China's recovery lagging behind that of the US, particularly in sectors like dining and tourism [2][4] - The growth in essential consumption remains robust, while discretionary consumption shows weaker performance [4][28] - The consumer confidence index in China is at 88.2, indicating a cautious outlook among residents regarding future economic conditions [43] Group 2: Market Performance and Valuation - The Hong Kong food and beverage sector has seen a decline of 4.3%, with significant disparities in performance across sub-sectors; the tobacco sector surged by 45%, while dairy and liquor sectors faced declines of 24.6% and 20.3% respectively [34][35] - Current valuation levels in the market are at historical lows, with an average PE-TTM of 11x, suggesting that stock prices are significantly misaligned with fundamentals [14][36] - Leading companies in the sector have a PE-TTM ranging from 13-18x, indicating they are still undervalued [14][36] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the dining sector, major chains have expanded their store numbers significantly, leading to a competitive environment where individual store revenues have declined, yet overall revenues for many companies have increased compared to 2019 [106][129] - The beer sector is experiencing a notable recovery, with companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer expected to see net profit growth of 17.2% and 16.8% respectively in 2024, with PE ratios at 13.8x and 13.3x [105][114] - The liquor sector, particularly for companies like Zhenjiu Lidou, is projected to grow by 20.5% in net profit for 2024, with a PE of 13.2x, indicating strong performance relative to the industry [5][115] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - In the first quarter of 2024, per capita income in China was 11,500 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, which is crucial for building consumer confidence [17] - The total retail sales in China for the first five months of 2024 reached 19.5 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate has been gradually slowing [41][20] - The tourism sector has shown a strong recovery, with the May Day holiday tourism revenue reaching 166.8 billion yuan, a 42% increase compared to 2019 [46][142]