高盛：日本策略日本是否正迈入新的地缘政治超级周期

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for Japanese equities, particularly in sectors benefiting from increased defense spending and government support due to geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Japan's geopolitical focus has shifted significantly since 2022, influenced by the Ukraine war, rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities [1][2]. - The report identifies five strategic industries poised to benefit from government spending and economic security initiatives: Resources, Data Centers and Cybersecurity, Infrastructure, Electronic Components (including Semiconductors), and Advanced Production Equipment [1][3]. - The GS Japan Defense Basket has been rebalanced to include stocks that will benefit from increased defense spending, alongside a new Japan Geopolitical Beneficiaries Screen of 62 large-cap stocks [3][11]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - The report highlights a strong correlation between Japan's equity market performance and levels of geopolitical tension, suggesting that heightened tensions can lead to favorable market conditions [2][19]. - Japan's defense spending is projected to reach 1.6% of GDP for FY3/25, with a target of 2% by FY3/28, marking a significant increase from historical levels [5][21][23]. Government Initiatives - The Economic Security Promotion Act aims to bolster key industries, particularly semiconductors, with government subsidies currently at 0.7% of GDP, higher than other G7 nations [6][44]. - Recent diplomatic initiatives have strengthened Japan's global presence, with a 15% increase in diplomatic missions since 2013, surpassing the UK and Germany [30][31]. Sector Performance - The GS Japan Defense Basket has outperformed the TOPIX index since 2023, indicating strong investor interest in defense-related stocks [54]. - The Japan Geopolitical Beneficiaries Screen has also shown accelerated performance relative to the broader market, reflecting the positive impact of government support and geopolitical themes [12][13]. Corporate Governance and Economic Security - The Tokyo Stock Exchange has renewed its focus on corporate governance reforms, aiming to enhance the attractiveness of Japanese equities to domestic investors [41][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a vibrant equity market for Japan's economic strength, linking corporate governance improvements to broader economic security initiatives [43][48].