高盛：金属与矿业：铜业周要点

Investment Rating - First Quantum Minerals is rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of C$25.0/share based on an EV/EBITDA multiple-based valuation [31][45]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural bullishness around copper supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of a market deficit by year-end due to increased mine disruptions and a shift in demand structure towards electrification [12][18]. - Most producers are focusing on reducing project risk through partnerships and joint ventures, while maintaining a growth focus in project development [2][12]. - The long-term incentive price for copper is projected to be between $4.5-5.0/lb, with consensus moving towards the higher end of this range [2][35]. Summary by Company Ero Copper - Ero Copper has a market cap of US$2.1B and is expected to produce 42-47kt of copper in 2024, with a focus on high-quality assets and a capital allocation strategy aimed at maintaining a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.0-1.5x [7][8]. Freeport-McMoran - Freeport-McMoran, with a market cap of US$69B, aims to optimize output from existing assets and maintain a 50% cash flow reinvestment policy for growth [9][11]. Antofagasta - Antofagasta, valued at US$20B, is targeting a production increase to 900ktpa by leveraging organic growth options and has a strong focus on community relationships and cost reduction strategies [12][14]. Codelco - Codelco, a state-owned enterprise, aims to increase production to 1.7mtpa by the end of the decade, with expectations of lower unit costs due to fixed costs and local currency depreciation [15][17]. Teck Resources - Teck Resources, with a market cap of US$33B, is transitioning to a pure-play base metals company and is focused on organic growth in copper production [19][22]. Lundin Mining - Lundin Mining, valued at US$8.2B, is concentrating on copper growth with several organic options across its assets and is exploring strategic partnerships for further development [23][26]. Hudbay Minerals - Hudbay Minerals, with a market cap of US$3.4B, is focused on copper production and is pursuing a joint venture partnership for its Copper World project [27][30]. First Quantum Minerals - First Quantum Minerals, with a market cap of US$10B, is heavily invested in copper, with a focus on reopening Cobre Panama and expanding operations in Zambia [31][32]. Capstone Copper - Capstone Copper, valued at US$5.1B, is optimistic about copper prices due to supply constraints and is planning expansions at its Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos mines [34][35]. Foran Mining - Foran Mining, with a market cap of US$0.8B, emphasizes the uniqueness of its Mcllvenna Bay deposit and aims to overcome challenges in permitting and execution to bring new supply online [36][37].