高盛：美洲银行2024年CC大型银行资本要求不确定性凸显

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally negative outlook for the banking sector, with stress capital buffers (SCBs) increasing on average by 30 basis points year-over-year, now averaging 3.3% across the group, which is above the 3 and 5-year averages [1][12]. Core Insights - The 2024 CCAR stress test results were worse than expected, primarily due to a 9% year-over-year decline in pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) for the largest banks, alongside higher credit losses and provisions [1][4]. - Despite the disappointing results, most large banks maintain excess capital above their minimum requirements, suggesting that capital return plans are likely to remain intact [1][4]. - Among large banks, significant increases in SCBs were observed for WFC (90bps), BAC (70bps), MS (60bps), and USB (60bps), while C's SCB decreased by 20bps [1][4]. - The report highlights that the market may be surprised by the SCB increase at WFC, given its stable risk profile and positive earnings trends in 2023 [1][4]. - In the regional banks and consumer finance sectors, SCBs averaged 3.2%, with notable increases for KEY (+60bps) and FITB (+70bps), while TFC and MTB saw decreases [4][5]. Summary by Sections Key Takeaways - The report emphasizes that banks have an estimated $79 billion of excess capital, representing 4% of market capitalization, compared to their capital targets [5][7]. - The average SCB for the banks tested is 3.3%, leading to an average total CET1 requirement of 8.6% [10][12]. SCBs under 2024 CCAR - The report details that SCBs for consumer finance participants averaged 3.40%, with AXP steady at 2.5%, ALLY slightly up to 2.6%, DFS increasing by 50bps to 3.0%, and COF rising by 70bps to 5.50% [4][5]. - The report notes that the SCB increases for ALLY and COF were viewed differently, with ALLY being better than feared and COF being a relative disappointment [4][5]. CCAR 2024 Results - The results indicate that all banks would be well above their SCB minimum capital requirements under the severely adverse scenario, with BAC closest to the minimum at 120bps of excess capital [5][10]. - The report anticipates that banks will disclose actual SCBs and provide details on capital return plans following the market close on June 28 or July 1 [4][5].