能源新纪元系列：光伏行业趋势洞察篇

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights the photovoltaic (PV) industry as a key driver of global energy transition, with a strong growth outlook and significant market potential [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The PV industry is expected to lead global energy capacity growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3% from 2021 to 2030, increasing its market share from 11.3% to 37.1% [2] - Global PV installations are forecasted to reach 660GW by 2028, driven by regional policies and renewable energy targets [4] - China's PV industry has evolved from subsidy dependence to market-driven development, with a strong global presence across the entire supply chain [5] Regional Development Trends - Europe aims for 320GW and 600GW of cumulative PV installations by 2025 and 2030, respectively, with a target of 45% renewable energy generation [4] - The US is expected to add 570GW of PV capacity over the next decade, supported by the Inflation Reduction Act and investment tax credits [4] - India targets 300GW of PV installations by 2030, with annual additions of 20-30GW, while Southeast Asia and the Middle East also show strong growth potential [4] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream silicon and wafer segments are highly concentrated, with cost control and production efficiency being critical for profitability [6][7] - The midstream battery and module segments face intense competition due to rapid technological advancements and vertical integration strategies [7] - The downstream EPC and power plant investment segments are driven by cost efficiency, with increasing demand for distributed PV systems [7] Technological Trends - N-type batteries, including TOPCon and HJT, are gaining traction with conversion efficiencies reaching 24%-25%, surpassing traditional P-type PERC cells [18][19] - Leading PV companies are investing heavily in R&D to stay ahead in the technology race, adopting a "mass production, R&D, and reserve" strategy [19] Distributed PV Growth - Distributed PV installations in China reached 29.27GW in 2021, accounting for 55% of total new PV capacity, driven by policy support and cost reductions [20][21] - Commercial and industrial (C&I) distributed PV is a key growth area, with annual installations increasing from 5GW in 2020 to 53GW in 2023 [23] Operational and Maintenance (O&M) Market - China's PV O&M market is projected to grow from 24 billion yuan in 2023 to 50 billion yuan by 2028, driven by the increasing need for efficient maintenance of existing PV assets [28][29] - Digitalization is seen as a key strategy for reducing O&M costs and improving efficiency, with potential to enhance service value and lower labor costs [33][34] Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on business growth, lean operations, and diversified collaboration to navigate the energy transition and maintain competitive advantage [35][36] - Key tactics include optimizing EPC costs, maximizing asset value, and integrating resources across the value chain to drive innovation and efficiency [36]