高盛：汽车现金成本分析——关注拐点（部分）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, Li Auto, and XPeng, while Nio is rated as "Neutral" [5][36]. Core Insights - The inflection point for the China auto industry has not yet been reached, with more than half of the tracked OEMs still above cash cost levels and management optimistic about profitability recovery [2][3]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation as management becomes more pessimistic about profitability and expansion, leading to cuts in capital and operational expenditures [15][19]. - Current share prices reflect expectations of further price competition and adjustments in average selling prices (ASP) across various OEMs [42]. Summary by Sections OEM at Cash Cost Level - The industry inflection point will occur when most companies reach or are near cash cost levels, indicating a deterioration in cash flows [3][6]. - In Q1 2024, 7 out of 13 major OEMs tracked reported positive EBITDA, suggesting ongoing competitive pricing [3][7]. Management Capitulating on Profitability & Expansion - The report categorizes OEMs into four groups based on their financial health and management outlook, with 7 companies still actively competing and expanding [15][19]. - Management comments indicate a mix of strategies, with some companies cutting back on capital expenditures while others continue to pursue growth [15][19]. Calculating Potential Tipping Point - Analysis shows that OEMs with positive EBITDA could implement price cuts of 6%-17% before reaching cash cost levels [36][39]. - For OEMs currently operating at a loss but with net cash, three are projected to transition to net debt within the next 12 months [36][40]. Valuation: What's Priced In by the Market - The market is factoring in further price competition and ASP cuts for BYD and XPeng, with specific sales volume adjustments for Li Auto and Nio [42].