高盛：市场日报：美国大选真的是收益率曲线陡峭的原因吗

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the potential for curve steepeners and inflation breakevens as investment strategies in the context of the upcoming US election [5][15]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the US election on interest rate markets, suggesting that a Republican win, particularly a Trump presidency, could lead to higher yields and a steeper yield curve due to increased fiscal expansion and policy uncertainty [5][7]. - However, it also highlights several factors that may challenge this view, including modest supply-driven yield repricing and the historical market response to tariffs as a negative productivity shock, which could lead to lower yields and a flatter curve [3][10][15]. - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic backdrop is significantly different from previous election cycles, which may result in varied market reactions to potential tariff announcements and Fed policy changes [10][17]. Summary by Sections Election Impact on Yields - The report suggests that the market's perception of a Trump presidency could support higher yields and a steeper curve, but the actual supply outlook may not differ significantly between a Trump and Biden presidency [8][10]. - It notes that fiscal deficits and debt supply are expected to be worse this time, potentially leading to slightly higher term premia, but any direct yield repricing due to the election is expected to be modest [8][10]. Trade Policy and Market Reactions - Historical evidence indicates that major tariff announcements in 2019 led to lower yields and a flattening of inflation curves, as the market viewed tariffs as a negative productivity shock [10][13]. - The report warns that the current macro backdrop, with higher starting inflation levels, may limit the Fed's ability to respond aggressively to inflationary shocks from tariffs [10][17]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on buying front-end and belly inflation breakevens and conditional bear flatteners as cleaner election hedges rather than outright curve steepeners [4][15]. - It suggests that the risks of lower yields and a flatter curve, particularly in the front end, may be more compelling than positioning for higher long-end yields [15][19].