高盛：市场下跌12%；第三届全会将于7月15日至18日举行；放宽了首付款和抵押贷款要求

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the MXCN and CSI300 indices, with forward P/E ratios of 9.3x and 11.5x respectively, suggesting potential undervaluation in the market [2][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that industrial profits and revenues have remained flat sequentially, while the fiscal deficit has widened due to increased government bond issuance [2]. - Inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has decreased for 12 consecutive months, with a year-to-date drop of 28% as of May [2]. - The upcoming Third Plenary Session is expected to influence market sentiment, with historical data showing that MSCI China tends to rise leading into the session [44][46]. Summary by Sections Earnings and Valuations - MXCN and CSI300 indices have experienced corrections of 10% and 6% since mid-May, with recent performance showing utilities and momentum sectors outperforming while IT and new China sectors lagged [2]. - The consensus EPS growth forecast for 2024/25 is 12%/14% for MXCN and 14%/13% for CSI300, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth [2]. Performance - The report notes that offshore utilities and momentum sectors outperformed, while real estate and growth sectors lagged [2]. - The report also mentions that Chinese corporates have returned over RMB 2 trillion to shareholders in each of the past three years, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [8]. Policy and News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued measures to promote new consumption drivers, and Beijing has relaxed homebuying requirements, which may stimulate the real estate market [2]. - The report discusses the implications of the Third Plenary Session, with various policy meetings indicating a focus on deepening reforms and enhancing economic stability [46]. Risk Barometers and Flows - The risk appetite Z-score indicates a moderate risk environment, with Northbound and Southbound capital flows showing significant outflows and inflows respectively [2]. - The report highlights that mutual funds globally have a low allocation to Chinese equities, suggesting potential for increased investment as sentiment improves [32][38].