高盛：利率交易员三种选举风险

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of political risks on global rates, particularly in the context of upcoming elections in the US and Europe, suggesting that these events could lead to volatility in yields and curves [1][3][4] - It highlights the potential for a flattening of the yield curve due to various macroeconomic factors, including fiscal deficits and trade policies under a potential Trump presidency [3][4] - The report anticipates that European duration may suffer if a US-led sell-off extends, but expects the ECB to embrace clearer policy divergence from the Fed over a 6-12 month horizon [24] Summary by Sections US Political Risks - The first US Presidential debate has increased the odds of a Trump presidency, leading to market reactions similar to those seen during the Iowa caucuses [3][5] - The report argues that the range of potential fiscal deficits under different election outcomes is narrow, limiting the impact on term premia [3][4] European Political Risks - The report notes that the UK election is unlikely to present major risks for Gilts, while the French election carries two-way risks [1][4] - It discusses the potential for OAT-Bund spreads to widen, particularly in response to political deadlock or a status quo outcome in France [11][12] Global Rates and Inflation - The report indicates that global rates markets are sensitive to inflation surprises, particularly in Canada and Australia, which have seen upward revisions in inflation expectations [20][24] - It suggests that the disinflation path in Europe is on track, albeit at a muted pace, and that the ECB is likely to gain confidence in its medium-term inflation projections [11][24] Recommendations - The report recommends being long 5-year breakevens and suggests buying specific payers as effective hedges against election risks [4][24] - It also advises on tactical positioning in the US and Canadian markets, including receiving strategies and steepeners [24][20] Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for G10 10-year yields, projecting a decline in yields across various currencies, with specific numbers for USD, GBP, and EUR [29][30]