高盛：美国每周开局标普500赛事,共识预期2023二季度盈利同比增9%,创2021年来最高

Investment Rating - The report indicates a consensus expectation of +9% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 2024, marking the highest growth rate since Q4 2021 [8][9]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 is projected to end 2024 at 5600, reflecting a +2.1% increase [2]. - Analysts expect mega-cap tech firms to report a sales growth of 17% in Q2, with the six largest stocks (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA) anticipated to grow EPS by 30% year-over-year [8][9]. - The report highlights that while high-growth stocks typically generate similar rewards as low-multiple stocks when beating estimates, they significantly underperform when failing to meet sales estimates [11]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.2% this week, with Communication Services being the best-performing sector (+3.6%) and Materials the worst (-1.0%) [2]. - The report notes that the expected EPS growth of +9% contrasts sharply with minimal growth expectations in previous quarters [9]. Earnings, Sales, and Revisions - Analysts forecast a +4% year-over-year sales growth in Q2, with nominal GDP growth expected at 6% for the quarter [8]. - The median stock is expected to grow EPS by 5% year-over-year, while sectors like Information Technology and Communication Services are projected to deliver the fastest EPS growth at +17% [8][9]. - The report indicates that consensus EPS estimates have been unusually resilient, with only a 1% reduction in the consensus Q2 EPS estimate over the last six months [9]. Valuation - The report presents a full-year 2024 EPS estimate of $241, closely aligned with the bottom-up consensus of $244, while the 2025 EPS estimate is $256, which is below the consensus of $279 [11]. - Valuations for mega-cap tech stocks have increased by 8% year-to-date, despite expected deceleration in profit growth [11]. Sector Performance - The report outlines that sectors such as Materials and Industrials are expected to see declines in EPS, with Materials projected to decline by -11% year-over-year [8]. - The expected net profit margins for S&P 500 firms, excluding the Energy sector, are forecasted to be 11.7%, reflecting a 58 basis points increase year-over-year [8].