供需失衡偏逢贸易摩擦，光伏制造业饱受挑战

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry due to supply-demand imbalances and trade frictions, leading to a cautious investment outlook [2][14]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector has seen significant capacity expansion driven by high demand from 2021 to 2022, but faces difficulties in matching this supply with actual demand [3][5]. - By the end of 2023, China's polysilicon production reached 1.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%, with wafer, cell, and module production also showing substantial growth [3]. - The report highlights that the actual capacity utilization rates for major manufacturers remain relatively high, but nominal capacity utilization has declined due to the rapid expansion of new capacities [3][14]. - The anticipated global installation of new photovoltaic capacity in 2024 is projected to be 460GW, which is only about 50% of China's production capacity, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch [5][11]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term growth of photovoltaic demand is under threat due to challenges in grid integration and increasing curtailment rates of solar power [11][14]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is experiencing a significant oversupply, with production capacity far exceeding the expected demand for new installations [3][5]. - The report notes that the supply of photovoltaic products has been growing at a rate that outpaces the growth of installation capacity, leading to a potential market correction [3][11]. Financial Health of Companies - The financial flexibility and credit quality of companies in the photovoltaic sector are under pressure due to declining product prices and increasing competition [14]. - The report indicates that while some leading companies have managed to maintain financial stability through aggressive pricing strategies, the overall profitability of the sector is declining [14]. Trade and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., which has initiated investigations into imports of photovoltaic products from Southeast Asia, potentially affecting the operations of major Chinese manufacturers [14]. - Regulatory measures aimed at curbing overcapacity and promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector have been introduced, but their effectiveness remains uncertain [4][14].