高盛：亚太地区投资组合策略印度来自和孟买营销的反馈

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive structural case for Indian equities, suggesting an upward bias in the near term despite concerns about potential risks [3][4]. Core Insights - India's macroeconomic stability and policy continuity are well understood by investors, with strong growth, low inflation, and ample foreign exchange reserves contributing to a favorable outlook [3]. - Earnings delivery has been a key driver of the recent 40% rally in Indian equities, with a projected 15% earnings CAGR for 2024/25 expected to support market returns [4][8]. - High valuations are a common concern among investors, with MSCI India trading at nearly 24x forward P/E, but there is optimism about sustained domestic and foreign inflows [10][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Investors are focused on the upcoming budget to assess the fiscal consolidation path, with expectations of continued decent growth data and domestic inflows [3]. - The report highlights a declining sensitivity of the Indian economy to global shocks, indicating resilience in the face of external pressures [3]. Earnings and Valuation - The report notes a 40% increase in MSCI India driven by a cumulative profit growth of 33% over the past 18 months, with a mixed sentiment regarding the sustainability of future earnings [4][8]. - The 12-month NIFTY target is set at 26,000, driven by anticipated profit growth and moderate valuation compression [10]. Market Dynamics - Retail flows have been identified as a significant driver of market activity, with high net-worth individuals and retail investors influencing prices, while foreign investors have been less active [14][15]. - There is potential for foreign inflows to improve, given the current low levels of foreign ownership in Indian equities, which could lead to outperformance of large-cap and quality mid-cap stocks [15][19]. Sector Preferences - Investors show a preference for sectors with strong earnings visibility, favoring manufacturing over low-end consumption, and private banks over public sector banks [19]. - The report indicates a rising focus on quality companies, with thematic investment ideas outperforming the NIFTY index [20]. Investor Concerns - Key concerns include global risks related to moderating US growth and potential volatility surrounding the US elections, as well as domestic equity supply issues [19][22]. - Investors are cautious about the large amount of equity supply hitting the market and the potential impact of upcoming IPOs [19].