高盛：市场评论大选足迹首次总统辩论提供的线索

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment outlook for USD strength in the event of a Trump election victory, suggesting it as an attractive positioning strategy [4][25]. Core Insights - The first presidential debate resulted in a significant shift in prediction market probabilities favoring a Republican victory, with nearly a 6 percentage point increase [7]. - Asset market reactions during the debate were modest, with US equities and bond yields showing slight upward movements, while FX performance was mixed [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that the market may not yet be fully focused on the policy implications of a potential Trump presidency, particularly regarding tariff policies [4][21]. Summary by Sections Market Reactions - The debate window saw modest upward moves in US equities, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.17%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.21%, and Russell 2000 by 0.26% [12]. - Bond yields also increased slightly, with the UST 10-year yield rising by 1.0 basis points [12]. - FX movements were mixed, with the JPY/USD increasing by 0.16% while the AUD/USD decreased by 0.04% [12]. Predictions and Estimates - The report provides estimates for asset shifts based on potential election outcomes, indicating a Republican sweep could lead to a 2.0% increase in the S&P 500 and a 37 basis point rise in UST 10-year yields [15]. - In contrast, a Biden victory could result in a 3.7% decrease in the S&P 500 and a 24 basis point drop in UST 10-year yields [15]. Policy Implications - The report highlights that the market has not fully considered the implications of potential tariff policies from a Republican presidency, which could lead to stronger USD performance [21][25]. - It suggests that as the election approaches, focus on these policies is likely to increase, presenting a risk that investors should hedge against [4][25].