中银证券中银晨会聚焦

Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector showed a positive increase of 1.74%, while the home appliances sector declined by 1.79% [1] - The banking sector increased by 1.60%, whereas the machinery equipment sector decreased by 1.55% [1] - The overall composite index rose by 1.45%, with the electronics sector down by 1.46% [1] - The computer sector saw a modest increase of 0.68%, while the automotive sector fell by 1.40% [1] - The steel sector increased by 0.66%, and the non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 1.36% [1] Key Focus Areas - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including China Petroleum (601857.SH) and Bilibili (9626.HK) among others [2] - The chemical pharmaceutical raw material manufacturing PPI index has been stabilizing at a low level since its peak in 2022, indicating a bottoming out trend [3][11] - Prices of various pharmaceutical raw materials have shown fluctuations, with antibiotics remaining at high price levels while other categories like steroids and non-steroidal drugs have seen minor fluctuations [3][11] Price Trends in Raw Materials - Antibiotic prices, particularly for penicillin, have experienced a significant price increase from 290 RMB/kg in April 2024 to 365 RMB/kg in May 2024, marking a rise of 25.86% [4] - The price of dexamethasone phosphate has also increased from 8,000 RMB/kg in September 2023 to 9,750 RMB/kg in October 2023, reflecting a 21.88% increase [4] - Vitamin B1 prices have shown a stable growth trend, rising from 116.50 RMB/kg in January 2023 to 185 RMB/kg in June 2024, a total increase of 58.80% [12] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the competitive landscape of raw materials, suggesting potential price rebounds for certain products like VD3 and steroids in the next 2-3 quarters due to low inventory levels among downstream customers [4] - The overall market for raw materials is expected to stabilize, with some products potentially experiencing a rise in both volume and price due to China's competitive advantages in production scale and cost [4]