一季度对外经济部门体检报告：两个“双顺差”彰显中国国际收支韧性

Economic Overview - In Q1 2024, the current account surplus narrowed by 49% year-on-year to $39.2 billion, the lowest since Q2 2020, accounting for 0.9% of GDP[7] - The service trade deficit contributed 54% to the decline in the current account surplus, increasing by 49% year-on-year to $61.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2019[7] - The goods trade surplus decreased by 4% year-on-year to $121.3 billion, marking a new low since 2021[2] Investment and Capital Flows - The primary income deficit accounted for a 27% reduction in the current account surplus, growing by 73% year-on-year to $24.3 billion[2] - Foreign direct investment, securities investment, and other investments all recorded net inflows for the first time since 2022, with other investments turning from a net outflow of $18.7 billion to a net inflow of $19.4 billion[15] - The annualized return on foreign investments fell to a record low of 2.2%, while the return on foreign investments remained stable at 5.6%[2] Trade and Export Performance - The total goods and services trade surplus decreased by 30% year-on-year to $60.1 billion, the lowest since 2021, despite a 13.0% year-on-year increase in goods export volume[2] - China's export market share rose to 13.6%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable position in global supply chains[2] Financial Resilience - The increase in reserve assets was significant, with a rise of $43.4 billion in Q1 2024, the second-highest since the "8.11" exchange rate reform[11] - The private sector's net foreign liabilities decreased to $507.6 billion, down $33.9 billion from the end of 2023, with a reduction in the ratio to annualized nominal GDP from 3.0% to 2.8%[18] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected overseas financial risks, central bank policy adjustments, and domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations[23]