LI AUTO(02015) 国联证券·2024-07-03 02:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015) is to "continue to pay attention" due to the ongoing improvement in product strength and sales momentum [5][7]. Core Insights - In June 2024, Li Auto delivered 47,774 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. For Q2 2024, total deliveries reached 108,581 units, up 25.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The launch of the L6 model has significantly boosted sales momentum, with over 20,000 units delivered in June 2024 alone. The company has also introduced a limited-time 0 down payment offer to lower purchase costs and expand its customer base [2][4]. - Li Auto is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with a summer release event scheduled for July 2024 to upgrade its NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) feature for all AD Max users [3]. - The company's service and charging ecosystem is expanding, with 497 retail centers and 614 supercharging stations established across 148 cities as of May 31, 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280.0 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion CNY, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively [5][6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6% [5][6].