Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 was recorded at 1.6%, significantly below the market expectation of 2.5%[5] - Core PCE inflation reached 3.7%, exceeding the anticipated 3.4%[5] - The labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls consistently surpassing market expectations despite a slight decrease in labor demand[3] Consumer Behavior - Consumer credit levels are declining, and personal savings have not significantly increased after prior fiscal policy support[3] - Personal income continues to support consumption levels, with wage growth remaining relatively high, particularly in the service sector[39] Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted from June to September 2024, with anticipated cuts reduced from three to two or fewer[18] - The Federal Reserve's officials have adjusted their inflation forecasts upward, indicating a cautious stance on potential rate cuts[45] Global Economic Trends - Non-U.S. developed countries are experiencing economic slowdowns due to high interest rates, prompting central banks to initiate rate cuts[18] - The divergence in economic performance between the U.S. and other developed nations is becoming more pronounced, with the latter seeing inflation levels return to around 2%[53] Domestic Economic Recovery - China's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in Q1 2024, supported by strong export performance and manufacturing sector growth[66] - Fixed asset investment growth in China was recorded at 4.0%, with manufacturing investment growing at 9.6%[80] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector in China continues to face challenges, with a 10.1% decline in property development investment from January to May 2024[87] - Despite some policy measures to stimulate the housing market, the recovery remains slow, with significant declines in mortgage lending observed[92]
宏观经济半年报：海外经济走势分化 国内表现回升向好
Rui Da Qi Huo·2024-07-03 10:00