策略周报：港股估值上攻待更积极催化，捕捉结构性机会

Group 1 - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend central state-owned enterprises in sectors such as energy, telecommunications, and utilities, while also considering opportunities in copper and gold stocks as U.S. Treasury yields rise [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,721 points, down 1.6% for the week, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.9% to 3,553 points, indicating a cautious market sentiment with an average daily turnover of HKD 97.73 billion, down 8.5% from the previous week [2][3] - The report highlights that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index has dropped to a forecast PE of 8.4 times, with a risk premium at the 59.6% percentile over the past seven years, suggesting attractive valuation levels [30] Group 2 - The official manufacturing PMI for June reported at 49.5%, indicating a contraction in both domestic and external demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5%, the lowest since December of the previous year [6][18] - The report notes that the fiscal revenue for January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, with a positive growth of around 2% when adjusted for special factors, while fiscal expenditure grew by 3.4% [8][18] - The report indicates that the central bank's recent decision to conduct treasury borrowing operations aims to guide long-term treasury yields upward, reflecting a commitment to stabilize yields within a reasonable range [9][20] Group 3 - The report mentions that the U.S. core PCE inflation rate for May was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 0.08%, suggesting a continued downward trend in inflation [40] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of loosening, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims reached a two-and-a-half-year high, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [11][22] - The report highlights that the U.S. economic data indicates good expansion in both manufacturing and services, with the S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI reaching a 26-month high, suggesting sustained economic growth momentum [23][41] Group 4 - The report indicates that the net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks decreased significantly by 61% to HKD 9.3 billion, while northbound funds experienced a net outflow of RMB 11.7 billion, reflecting a cautious stance from long-term foreign investors [45][27] - The report notes that the real estate market in Beijing is responding positively to new policies aimed at reducing down payments and interest rates, with significant increases in transaction volumes observed in major cities [21][39] - The report emphasizes that the overall macroeconomic expectations remain stable but weak, and further upward movement in Hong Kong stock valuations will require stronger economic recovery momentum or additional policy support [30][16]