Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.05 [5][14]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant clinical data for its drug Mazdutide, which is expected to be approved in the first half of 2025, slightly ahead of previous expectations [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards due to the anticipated earlier launch of Mazdutide and improved clinical results [3]. - The company reported a substantial increase in product sales revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 60% in the first quarter [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,206 million in 2023 to RMB 11,845 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [11]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecasted profit of RMB 182 million in 2025 and RMB 367 million in 2026 [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 0.24 by 2026 [11]. Adjustments to Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1.0% and 4.9%, respectively, due to the positive outlook for Mazdutide [3][6]. - The sales expense ratio for 2026 has been revised down from 38.7% to 37.9%, reflecting the company's confidence in managing costs amid high demand for GLP-1 drugs [3]. Clinical Data Highlights - In clinical trials, Mazdutide demonstrated a weight reduction of 13.38% and 14.84% after 32 and 48 weeks, respectively, and an 80.2% reduction in liver fat content after 48 weeks [2][6]. - The drug also showed significant improvements in waist circumference, blood pressure, and lipid levels, indicating a reduced risk of cardiovascular diseases [2][9].
信达生物：玛仕度肽临床数据优异，上调2025-26E业绩预测