机械设备行业2024年下半年投资策略：大规模设备更新有望催化行业景气度提升

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector is experiencing low overall performance growth due to insufficient market demand, with total revenue in 2023 reaching 1.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, and a compound growth rate of only 0.96% over the past two years [3][16] - The sector's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 116.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.03%, with a compound growth rate of -2.82% over the past two years, indicating significant pressure on overall performance [3][16] - The first quarter of 2024 shows a total revenue of 412.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a net profit of 26.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, still indicating relatively low growth rates [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Market Demand and Performance - The mechanical equipment sector's overall performance growth is low due to weak downstream demand, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing growing by 9.6% year-on-year in the first five months of 2024, while infrastructure investment grew by only 5.7% [9][11] - The manufacturing PMI for June 2024 was 49.5, indicating continued weak market demand, which suppresses growth in the mechanical equipment sector [9] 2. Market Trends and Valuation - The SW mechanical equipment index has declined by 13.03% since the beginning of 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.92 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 SW primary industries [26][28] - The overall rolling P/E ratio for the sector has decreased from 26.02 times at the end of 2023 to 23.22 times, with a significant drop in valuation premium relative to the entire A-share market [36][37] 3. Fund Allocation - As of the end of Q1 2024, funds held a market value of 80.31 billion yuan in the SW mechanical equipment sector, accounting for 3.18% of total holdings, ranking 11th among 31 SW primary industries [39][41] - The low allocation ratio indicates that funds are still underweight in the mechanical equipment sector, with a low allocation ratio of 1.06% compared to the previous year's 1.36% [39][41] 4. Industry Outlook - The push for large-scale equipment upgrades is expected to catalyze improvements in industry prosperity, with a focus on enhancing domestic supply chain security and promoting technological innovation [3][16]