食品饮料行业专题研究：2024Q2酒类前瞻：白酒分化延续，啤酒升级节奏放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with high-end liquor showing resilience while mid-range liquor faces challenges [3][25] - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in the second half of the year due to a low base effect, despite a slowdown in the upgrade pace during peak season [4][31] Summary by Sections Baijiu (Liquor) - Business Demand Recovery: Business demand for liquor is gradually recovering, influenced by macroeconomic improvements. The profit growth of industrial enterprises has shown signs of stabilization, with a 4.30% increase in Q1 2024 [1][9] - Consumer Demand: The demand for mid-range liquor is weak, with a slight decline expected in Q2 2024. Brand differentiation is becoming more pronounced, with leading brands like Fenjiu performing better [3][25] - Market Dynamics: The high-end liquor segment is projected to grow modestly, while the mid-range segment faces challenges. Regional leaders in the 100-300 RMB price range are expected to perform well due to their comprehensive market strategies [3][25][27] Beer - Production Trends: The cumulative beer production from January to May 2024 increased by 0.70% year-on-year, with expectations for a return to positive growth in the second half of the year as the production base lowers [4][31] - Cost Pressures: The cost of key raw materials is stabilizing or declining, which may alleviate some cost pressures for beer companies [4][31] - Market Segmentation: Beer consumption is showing regional and price segment differentiation, with higher-priced beers experiencing slower growth while mid-range beers continue to replace lower-priced options [4][31] Investment Recommendations - Liquor: Focus on companies with high report consistency and reasonable valuations, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. Regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are also recommended [5] - Beer: Attention should be given to undervalued leading companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer, with a focus on structural upgrades in the market [5]