6月非农数据点评：就业形势放缓

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000, slightly above the expected increase of 190,000, but down from a revised 218,000 in May[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 4.0% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January 2022[7] - Labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, compared to 62.5% in May[7] Sector Performance - Education and health services added 82,000 jobs, while government employment rebounded to 70,000, indicating strong support from public sector jobs[7] - The construction sector saw an increase of 27,000 jobs, while manufacturing and retail sectors lost 8,000 and 8,500 jobs respectively[10] - Professional and business services decreased by 17,000 jobs, highlighting structural changes in the labor market[10] Wage and Inflation Indicators - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.00, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.9%[7] - The data suggests that inflation has not been fully contained, as indicated by the rising average hourly wage[7] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 increased, with a probability of 83.8% for a cut in September[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7 basis points immediately after the data release but closed lower at 4.289%[7]