策略月报：上半年港股复盘及后市分析

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the recent rise in Hong Kong stocks is primarily driven by domestic real estate policy initiatives and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][31]. - Following April 20, Hong Kong stocks resumed an upward trend due to the implementation of various real estate policies aimed at reducing inventory, including the "430 Politburo meeting" directive to "digest existing properties" and the "517 real estate new policy" [1][31]. - The report notes that while the production side of the real estate sector is recovering quickly, the sales side is improving slowly, suggesting that the current market rally is more about sentiment than actual improvements in sales and investment data [1][31]. Group 2 - In June, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, attributed to market consolidation and the slow effectiveness of previous policies, with the domestic economic fundamentals remaining weak [7][22]. - The report highlights that the Hang Seng Index fell from 19,636 points to 17,719 points between May 20 and June 28, marking a cumulative decline of 13.6% [31]. - The report anticipates that the second half of the year will see positive changes in the fundamentals, capital flows, and market sentiment, which could support further upward movement in Hong Kong stocks [23]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the overall net profit growth for Hong Kong stocks in 2023 is expected to turn positive at 2.6%, improving from a negative 4.8% in the first half of 2023, indicating a gradual recovery in corporate earnings [13]. - It is projected that the actual GDP growth rate in China for 2024 could reach around 5% to 5.5%, supported by ongoing policy implementations and a recovery in the inventory cycle [13]. - The report also notes that flexible foreign capital has been a significant contributor to the inflow of foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 62 billion yuan net inflow from flexible foreign capital from the Spring Festival to the end of May [13].