海外宏观及大类资产周度报告

Group 1: Economic Trends - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing momentum, with key indicators such as the ISM PMI services index falling below the neutral line and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%[9] - Recent non-farm payroll data has been revised down significantly, with June's addition at 206,000, indicating a trend of declining job growth[26] - Inflation expectations are rebounding due to rising oil prices, despite a general economic slowdown[9] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the first debate between Biden and Trump, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries has rapidly widened, indicating market adjustments to potential political outcomes[10] - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find support between 4.10% and 4.15%, with a target of 3.80% for the year[19] - The political landscape in France suggests a controlled rightward shift, reducing risks of drastic policy changes in the EU, which has led to a rebound in the Euro and a corresponding decline in the U.S. dollar[18] Group 3: Asset Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.54% to 5,567.19, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.77% to 18,352.76, reflecting positive market sentiment[83] - Commodities such as zinc and tin are highlighted for potential bullish opportunities due to supply-side constraints, while copper remains stable amid ample supply[23] - The U.S. dollar is expected to fluctuate around a target of 104.2, with a longer-term outlook of 102.8 to 100.6 for the year[28]