川财证券研究所晨报

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in the three major indices, with a net outflow of 2.2 billion from northbound funds. The weak non-farm employment data from the US has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, and the upcoming CPI data is expected to continue its downward trend [3][8] - In the automotive sector, China's retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 28.6% year-on-year in June, while retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles decreased by 6.7% year-on-year but increased by 3.2% month-on-month [3][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as public utilities, electronics, and military industry for investment opportunities [3][11] Market Review - In the first half of the year, the major indices showed mixed performance: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.89%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 7.10% and 10.99% respectively. The Shanghai 50 Index increased by 2.95% [39] - Defensive sectors performed well, with coal, banking, and public utilities leading the gains, showing increases of 17.02%, 11.96%, and 11.76% respectively. In contrast, sectors like comprehensive, computer, and retail saw declines of -33.34%, -24.88%, and -24.59% [39] - The "going out" concept performed well, with the commercial vehicle sector rising by 47.43% in the first half, driven by strong overseas demand [40] Investment Strategy for the Second Half - The report recommends focusing on large-cap, low-valuation stocks, which are expected to attract more capital in the context of increasing global complexities and stricter regulations on listed companies [44][57] - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as having significant economic potential, with attention on core components, drone and flying car manufacturers, and applications in logistics and emergency services [45][57] - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from the development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, with government support and low historical valuations providing investment opportunities [51][57] - In the public utilities sector, reforms in capacity pricing for thermal power are expected to stabilize income and enhance profitability, while hydropower and nuclear power sectors are projected to maintain stable growth [51][57]