Jiangsu Guoxin (SZ:002608)2024-07-11 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Jiangsu Guoxin [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.68% to 60.60% [1] - The growth in electricity demand in Jiangsu, along with declining coal prices, is driving the company's profitability [1] - The company is projected to continue its performance improvement throughout the year, supported by the commissioning of new power generation units and effective cost control measures [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 51.68% to 60.60% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 1.55 to 1.65 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53.95% to 63.88% [1] - In Q2 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6.72% to 18.31% [1] Market Conditions - The average coal price has decreased to 845 yuan per ton, down by 5 yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a favorable market condition for the company [1] - Jiangsu's electricity consumption from January to May 2024 reached 323.5 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.66%, highlighting strong electricity demand [1] Growth Drivers - The company has a total installed capacity of 1,545.4 million kW, with significant contributions from coal-fired and gas-fired units [1] - The commissioning of new units at Shiyang Port is expected to enhance the company's electricity generation capacity in 2024 [1] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.973 billion yuan, 3.454 billion yuan, and 3.919 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.89, 8.51, and 7.50 [1][2]