Jiangsu Guoxin (SZ:002608)2024-07-11 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Guoxin (002608) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.68% to 60.60% [1] - The growth in electricity demand in Jiangsu and the decline in coal prices are driving the company's profitability [1] - The company has a significant amount of installed capacity under construction, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.55 to 1.65 billion yuan for Q2 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6.72% to 18.31% [1] - For the first five months of 2024, Jiangsu's electricity consumption reached 323.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.66% [1] - The company expects its net profit for 2024 to be 2.973 billion yuan, with projected profits of 3.454 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.919 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.89, 8.51, and 7.50 respectively [1][3] Market Conditions - The average market coal price has been declining, with the price of Qin Island 5500 kcal thermal coal at 845 yuan/ton as of July 8, 2024, down 5 yuan from the same period last year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable hydropower conditions and increased output from renewable energy sources, which may suppress coal demand [1] Growth Potential - The company currently has 6 million kW of installed capacity under construction, with significant projects expected to come online in the near future [1] - The company has a total installed capacity of 15.454 million kW, with 8.902 million kW from coal-fired plants in Jiangsu [1] - The completion of new units is anticipated to provide ongoing growth momentum for the company's performance [1]