2024年6月货币数据点评：实体需求不足亟待政策破局

Group 1: Economic Overview - In June 2024, the social financing increment was 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 928.3 billion yuan, marking a historical low[22] - The total amount of new RMB loans in June was 2.13 trillion yuan, down 920 billion yuan year-on-year, with a loan balance growth rate of 8.8%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[52] - M2 growth rate fell to 6.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to set a historical low since data collection began[70] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - Credit demand remains weak, with the total social financing growth rate hitting a new low, primarily due to insufficient private sector demand and limited government countermeasures[17] - The structure of credit is poor, with all categories of loans to households and enterprises showing a year-on-year decrease for four consecutive months[52] - The proportion of household loans in new loans was only about 10%, indicating a significant contraction in household credit behavior[63] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary easing tone remains unchanged, with the third quarter expected to be a critical observation window for potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions[11] - The necessity for stronger policy easing continues to grow, especially in fiscal policy, to effectively counter the demand gap in the private sector[8] - The stability of the money demand function is expected to deteriorate as the economic structure transitions, with M2 gradually becoming a historical target for monetary mediation, replaced by interest rates[11]