美银周刊越来越近

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first expected in September, reflecting a shift in market expectations towards easing monetary policy [15][23][37]. Core Insights - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a softer than expected inflation rate, with headline inflation decreasing by 0.1% month-over-month and core inflation rising by only 0.1%, leading to a year-over-year headline inflation rate of 3.0% and core inflation at 3.3% [16][23]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain policy rates on hold for now, with a baseline expectation of two cuts this year, driven by an inflation undershoot [28][31]. - In the UK, inflation and wage data present challenges, with the Bank of England (BoE) facing pressure to cut rates amid persistent wage growth and a recovering economy [12][37]. Summary by Sections United States - The Fed's confidence in cutting rates has increased due to softer CPI data, with expectations for two cuts this year, the first likely in September [15][23]. - The June CPI report indicated a broad-based disinflation, with core goods prices continuing to decline, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [16][18]. Euro Area - The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged in the near term, with a high conviction for two cuts this year, although recent inflation data raises concerns about the timing of these cuts [28][31]. - The ECB's approach remains data-dependent, with no immediate signals for September cuts, but a strong likelihood of future reductions based on inflation trends [30][34]. United Kingdom - The BoE is in a challenging position with sticky inflation and wage growth, leading to a close call for a potential rate cut in August [12][37]. - Recent GDP growth data and wage indicators suggest a mixed outlook, complicating the decision-making process for the BoE [38][41]. Asia - Thailand's economic recovery has been disappointing, with structural issues such as declining competitiveness and a shrinking labor force contributing to a long-term growth forecast of below 2% [47][52]. - The demographic trends in Thailand indicate significant challenges, including an aging population and a declining working-age demographic, which could hinder economic growth [48][49]. Emerging Markets - In Israel, inflation has increased to 2.8% in May, driven by currency weakness and supply constraints, with expectations for year-end inflation at 2.9% [59][61]. - The ongoing conflict in Israel has created uncertainty, impacting inflation and the overall economic outlook, with a projected budget deficit of 6.6% of GDP for the current year [62][63].