2024年6月：经济企稳下市场聚焦三中全会，预计联储9月前按兵不动

Economic Recovery and Policy Measures - Domestic recovery is ongoing, with retail sales in May exceeding market expectations, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% in industrial production despite a slowdown in growth rate[1][11]. - Recent property easing measures are expected to gradually take effect, with property sales in certain cities rebounding, although national sales remain sluggish, with a projected contraction of 31% in property sales this year[1][12]. - Local government special bond issuance is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of the year, supporting economic growth[1][14]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain sufficient liquidity and may cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in the second half of the year, while the likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low[1][14]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady until September, with a forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, starting with a 25 basis point cut in September[1][17]. - US Treasury yields are projected to trade within the ranges of 4.5%-4.9% for 2-year bonds and 4.2%-4.6% for 10-year bonds in the third quarter, before declining to 4.5% and 4.3% respectively by year-end[1][17]. Currency and Bond Market Trends - The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the USDCNY forecasted to decline to 7.0 by year-end due to improving domestic growth expectations in China[1][14]. - Dim sum bond issuance is likely to increase, driven by structural factors, despite a general decline in overseas capital inflow into emerging markets[1][10][32]. - The Japanese yen is projected to face inflationary pressures, with expectations of a rate hike of 20-30 basis points in the second half of the year[1][14].