上海电气:火电和核电订单高增,业绩不断修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited [2][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in net profits, with a reported revenue of 114.8 billion yuan in 2023, a 2.4% year-on-year decrease, but a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 108% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, reaching 18.9% in Q1 2024, with the energy equipment segment benefiting from high thermal power demand [10][12]. - Order growth has outpaced revenue growth, with new orders totaling 137.21 billion yuan in 2023, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by thermal and nuclear power installations [11][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 114.8 billion yuan, with projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 119.27 billion yuan, 124.20 billion yuan, and 127.45 billion yuan respectively [8][12]. - The net profit forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 612 million yuan, 1.107 billion yuan, and 1.624 billion yuan respectively [12]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 18.9%, an increase of 2.64 percentage points from the previous year [10][12]. Order and Inventory Management - The energy equipment segment accounted for 33.93% of revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points, while the renewable energy segment accounted for 51.1% [9][12]. - The company added 752.2 billion yuan in energy equipment orders in 2023, a 10% year-on-year increase, with nuclear power and coal-fired power equipment orders growing by 52.6% and 84.2% respectively [11][12]. - Inventory growth was 5% in 2023, attributed to the rapid increase in orders, indicating a potential for reduced impairment in the coming years [12].