环球市场动态

Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China reported a decline in new credit and social financing in June, with new credit at 2.13 trillion yuan (down from 3.05 trillion yuan year-on-year) and new social financing at 3.30 trillion yuan (down from 4.23 trillion yuan year-on-year) [3] - The overall growth rate of social financing stock was 8.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 8.4% in the previous month, while M2 growth was 6.2%, down from 7.0% [3] - The market's understanding of the financial data has adjusted, with expectations of continued effects from the central bank's measures to "squeeze water" from the financial system, leading to a potential further slowdown in credit growth in the short term [3] Global Market Overview - US consumer demand has weakened, and reduced oil imports from China have raised concerns about weak oil demand, leading to a softening of international oil prices [5] - US Treasury bonds strengthened overall, with yields falling by approximately 13 basis points, driven by CPI data that was below market expectations, leading traders to significantly raise interest rate cut expectations [6][50] - The European stock markets rose for three consecutive days, supported by strong corporate earnings and expectations of US interest rate cuts [10] Sector Insights - The US internet sector is expected to continue its robust performance in Q2, driven by macroeconomic resilience and the acceleration of AI technology integration [14] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with local property stocks rising sharply, reflecting market anticipation of further supportive measures from the upcoming Third Plenary Session [25][37] - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to benefit from a new expansion cycle, with North China Huachuang expected to see steady revenue growth and net profit exceeding market expectations [26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality growth stocks in the internet sector, including Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Uber, and Netflix, due to their strong cash flow and growth potential [14] - In the semiconductor equipment space, North China Huachuang is highlighted as a leading player with a broad range of equipment categories and significant growth potential [26]