海天国际：需求复苏在即，“买入”

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a revised target price of HK$27.50, up from the previous target price of HK$26.65 [2][3]. Core Insights - The demand for injection molding machines is showing signs of recovery, as indicated by recent company performance and customs data. The net profit forecasts for Haitian International for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 3.075 billion (+11.4%), RMB 3.257 billion (+9.2%), and RMB 3.215 billion (-0.2%) respectively [2]. - The gross margin forecasts for the same period have been adjusted to 33.4% (+0.9 percentage points), 33.0% (+0.4 percentage points), and 32.3% (-0.5 percentage points) [2]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.927 (+11.4%), RMB 2.055 (+9.2%), and RMB 2.009 (-0.2%) respectively [2]. - The target price corresponds to 13.3x, 12.5x, and 12.7x price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026, and a 2.0x price-to-book ratio for 2024 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, revenue is projected to be RMB 7.75 billion, representing a 21.5% year-on-year increase. Gross profit is expected to be RMB 2.59 billion, with a gross margin of 33.4% [7]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted at RMB 1.66 billion, reflecting a net margin of 21.4% [7]. - The company’s revenue for 2022 was RMB 12.31 billion, which increased to RMB 13.07 billion in 2023, and is expected to reach RMB 15.12 billion in 2024 [12]. Market Context - Haitian International's competitor, Lijin Technology, reported a 40.7% growth in its injection molding machine segment for the six months ending March 31, 2024, indicating a broader industry recovery [2]. - Strong export performance in the injection molding machine sector is noted, with exports amounting to RMB 5.289 billion in the first five months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [2]. - The company benefits from its overseas sales, which accounted for 39.4% of its revenue in 2023, positioning it well to capitalize on the recovery trend in the industry [2].