房地产行业2024年6月70个大中城市房价数据点评：70城房价环比下跌城市数量减少；京沪宁杭二手房房价止跌转涨

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1][14] Core Viewpoints - In June 2024, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the second-hand home prices fell by 0.9%. The number of cities with declining prices has decreased, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][6] - The decline in new home prices has persisted for 13 months, and the second-hand home prices have been falling for 14 months. This downtrend has lasted longer than the previous cycle in 2014 [1][5] - The report suggests that while the current price declines may continue for some time, the extent of the decline is nearing its bottom. A recovery in prices may take longer compared to the rapid rebound seen in 2014 [1][5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In June 2024, 64 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, a reduction of 4 cities from May. The average decline in new home prices was 0.75% [1][6] - For second-hand homes, 66 cities experienced price drops, also a decrease of 4 cities from the previous month, with an average decline of 0.92% [1][6] First-tier Cities - New home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.5%, with Shanghai being the only city to see an increase of 0.4% [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4%, with Beijing and Shanghai showing slight increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively [1][5] Second-tier Cities - New home prices in second-tier cities decreased by 0.7%, with only Xi'an showing a slight increase of 0.2% [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in these cities fell by 0.9%, but cities like Nanjing and Hangzhou saw slight increases [1][5] Third-tier Cities - New home prices in third-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, with most cities experiencing declines [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in third-tier cities fell by 0.9%, with all cities showing negative growth [1][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with no liquidity risk and strong fundamentals, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments [1][5] - It also highlights companies expected to improve significantly post-policy easing, like Gemdale and Vanke [1][5] - Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from increased second-hand home transactions, such as Beike and I Love My Home, are also recommended [1][5]